#104 Shakedown (19-17)

avg: 1100.57  •  sd: 60.45  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
216 Mud Turtles** Win 12-4 1085.18 Ignored Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
49 Cosa Nostra Loss 9-12 1026.42 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
118 Risky Business Loss 6-8 730.91 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
116 Moontower Win 10-9 1161.05 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
130 Impact Win 15-5 1568.83 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
49 Cosa Nostra Loss 7-11 904.89 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
94 Tex Mix Win 12-10 1391.16 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
34 Woodwork Loss 6-11 968.68 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
146 Prion Loss 6-13 285.02 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
45 Northern Comfort Loss 8-13 939.7 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
70 Chalice Loss 9-11 1027.43 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
160 Mad Udderburn Win 11-10 927.17 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
97 tHUMP Loss 8-11 774.27 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Win 8-7 1020.66 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
59 Distelfink Loss 9-12 955.34 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
73 Chaotic Good Loss 9-10 1140.65 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
31 Metro North Loss 7-13 998.79 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
30 Jughandle Loss 6-13 957.35 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
95 Ant Madness Win 12-11 1272.28 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
66 The Feminists Loss 6-11 736.86 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
41 Storm Loss 10-13 1151.02 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
186 Jabba Win 10-7 1039.86 Sep 8th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
155 Liquid Hustle Win 9-6 1260.39 Sep 8th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
172 Los Heros Win 10-6 1240.94 Sep 8th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
246 Taco Cat** Win 11-1 503.83 Ignored Sep 8th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
235 Skyhawks** Win 11-3 844.51 Ignored Sep 8th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
68 Nothing's Great Again Win 15-5 1881.31 Sep 9th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
186 Jabba Win 14-4 1250.2 Sep 9th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
77 Tequila Mockingbird Loss 9-10 1127.9 Sep 9th Central Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
146 Prion Loss 11-12 760.02 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
134 Petey's Pirates Win 13-9 1376.32 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
155 Liquid Hustle Win 12-8 1282.98 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
36 Steamboat Loss 6-13 905.39 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
147 Goose Lee Win 13-8 1379.77 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
88 Toast Win 11-10 1301.79 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
171 North Coast Win 14-11 1064.05 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)