#254 Derby City Thunder (7-18)

avg: 329.34  •  sd: 65.97  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
232 Buffalo Brain Freeze Win 6-4 818.69 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
166 Moonshine Loss 2-11 203.66 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
74 Petey's Pirates Loss 5-11 629.88 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
33 Hybrid** Loss 1-13 946.4 Ignored Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
147 Los Heros Loss 11-13 644.38 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
175 Prion Loss 9-10 616.33 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
185 Pixel Loss 4-11 88.21 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
189 Hairy Otter Loss 4-14 65.97 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
136 Crucible** Loss 3-15 331.51 Ignored Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
166 Moonshine Loss 7-10 413.99 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
172 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Loss 7-11 291.01 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
265 I-79 Win 7-5 591.09 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2019
248 Second Wind Win 13-11 606.07 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2019
277 Indiana Pterodactyl Attack Win 10-6 661.39 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2019
158 OutKast Loss 7-13 281.89 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
222 Monster Win 11-9 790.39 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
231 Mississippi Blues Loss 5-11 -144.66 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
116 Seoulmates** Loss 5-13 456.92 Ignored Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
298 The Leftovers Win 13-2 600 Ignored Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
231 Mississippi Blues Win 10-8 718 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
154 Goose Lee Loss 6-13 257.12 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
63 Toast** Loss 2-13 677.36 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
248 Second Wind Loss 6-13 -222.78 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
227 Midwestern Mediocrity Loss 9-15 -43.45 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
182 Rocket LawnChair Loss 7-15 113.72 Sep 8th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)