#69 Instant Karma (16-15)

avg: 1242.53  •  sd: 64.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
59 Flight Club Win 9-8 1435.57 Jun 22nd Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2019
52 Woodwork Loss 7-13 839.7 Jun 22nd Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2019
6 shame.** Loss 4-13 1328.01 Ignored Jun 22nd Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2019
56 Rubix Loss 8-12 893.33 Jun 22nd Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2019
50 Cutthroat Loss 8-11 1050.96 Jun 23rd Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2019
114 Mixed Signals Win 13-12 1185.51 Jun 23rd Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2019
195 Birds of Paradise Win 15-1 1248.76 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
243 Rogue** Win 15-0 1010.15 Ignored Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
48 Pivot Loss 5-15 840.51 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
56 Rubix Loss 10-14 935.78 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
142 Superstition Win 5-5 897.8 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
98 Family Style Win 10-8 1380.98 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
59 Flight Club Win 11-5 1910.57 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
99 Ouzel Loss 10-11 993.19 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
188 The Strangers Win 13-5 1273.76 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
50 Cutthroat Win 13-6 2016.57 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
64 Donuts Loss 7-10 883.1 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
129 Moontower Win 13-7 1545.72 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Win 15-10 1178.8 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
177 Spoiler Alert Win 15-6 1330.49 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
56 Rubix Loss 8-12 893.33 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
97 California Burrito Win 12-7 1641.14 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
30 Lotus Loss 8-12 1176.23 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
56 Rubix Loss 9-11 1085.27 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
96 Robot Win 13-7 1678.26 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
9 Blackbird Loss 6-13 1225.7 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
36 BW Ultimate Loss 5-13 924.91 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
50 Cutthroat Loss 9-13 998 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
127 Platypi Win 13-7 1561.8 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
97 California Burrito Win 12-10 1358.75 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
64 Donuts Loss 12-13 1147.77 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)