#7 Blackbird (29-10)

avg: 1891.68  •  sd: 69.56  •  top 16/20: 82%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
29 7 Figures Win 12-10 1798.5 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
21 Public Enemy Loss 10-11 1550.65 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
8 Love Tractor Loss 9-13 1460.59 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
9 Wild Card Win 12-8 2314.8 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
22 XIST Win 11-10 1743.05 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
3 Drag'n Thrust Loss 6-13 1418.23 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
10 shame. Loss 6-13 1244.73 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
55 American Barbecue Win 15-7 1924.28 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
37 BW Ultimate Win 10-8 1763.23 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
17 Polar Bears Win 13-8 2235.84 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
35 Classy Win 10-7 1903.38 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
23 Lights Out Loss 10-11 1489.46 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
65 Family Style** Win 15-3 1887.22 Ignored Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
28 Mesteño Win 13-6 2162.54 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
10 shame. Win 13-11 2073.57 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
16 NOISE Win 12-10 1981.3 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
8 Love Tractor Loss 11-13 1650.32 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
20 No Touching! Win 13-11 1910.22 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
51 Cutthroat Win 11-5 1957.69 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
236 Delta Breeze** Win 11-0 809.22 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
61 Donuts Win 11-4 1892.12 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
119 Buckwild** Win 11-3 1631.1 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
182 Sebastopol Orchard Win 11-5 1272.27 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
17 Polar Bears Win 12-11 1864.68 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
12 Mischief Win 13-5 2384.35 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
52 Instant Karma Win 13-2 1945.05 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
29 7 Figures Win 13-8 2056.54 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 12-13 1614.68 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
67 Firefly Win 13-9 1701.17 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
61 Donuts Win 13-5 1892.12 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
37 BW Ultimate Win 15-8 2065.37 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
35 Classy Win 13-7 2071.24 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
12 Mischief Loss 11-12 1659.35 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
15 Toro Loss 10-13 1432.49 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
1 AMP Win 15-14 2278.89 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
20 No Touching! Win 15-9 2196.86 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
4 BFG Win 14-13 2104.89 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
2 Seattle Mixtape Loss 11-13 1792.79 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
3 Drag'n Thrust Win 15-12 2318.72 Oct 20th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)