#69 Mental Toss Flycoons (13-13)

avg: 1279.48  •  sd: 82.34  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
40 Five One Two Loss 9-13 1066.73 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
44 Bozos Win 10-9 1585.67 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
8 Love Tractor Loss 9-13 1460.59 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
109 Superstition Win 11-7 1539.35 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
28 Mesteño Loss 12-15 1262.04 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
10 shame. Loss 8-15 1279.92 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
52 Instant Karma Loss 10-13 1016.91 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
51 Cutthroat Win 9-8 1482.69 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
- Lone Peak Y Win 15-13 1116.18 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
91 Argo Loss 9-11 915.75 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
143 Bulleit Train Win 10-7 1281.26 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
65 Family Style Loss 6-13 687.22 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
91 Argo Win 9-7 1444.29 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
199 Wasatch Sasquatch** Win 13-3 1178.35 Ignored Sep 8th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
- Dixon Melons Win 13-6 1108.84 Sep 8th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
44 Bozos Win 9-8 1585.67 Sep 8th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
14 Lochsa Loss 10-13 1435.57 Sep 8th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
- Hot Tub Magic Win 13-8 1278.03 Sep 9th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
44 Bozos Loss 5-12 860.67 Sep 9th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
14 Lochsa Loss 10-13 1435.57 Sep 9th Big Sky Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
44 Bozos Win 12-7 1981.18 Sep 22nd Northwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
14 Lochsa Loss 7-13 1206.18 Sep 22nd Northwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
23 Lights Out Loss 4-13 1014.46 Sep 22nd Northwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
168 Oh My! Win 13-5 1369.64 Sep 22nd Northwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
80 Garbage Win 12-11 1365.08 Sep 23rd Northwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
14 Lochsa Loss 8-13 1267.56 Sep 23rd Northwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)