#114 Buffalo Lake Effect (13-11)

avg: 1041.74  •  sd: 64.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
163 Stoke Win 13-8 1292.77 Jul 7th Philly Invite 2018
117 The Process Loss 10-11 907.39 Jul 7th Philly Invite 2018
83 Birds Loss 8-12 784.39 Jul 7th Philly Invite 2018
30 Jughandle Loss 8-13 1061.19 Jul 7th Philly Invite 2018
158 Philly Twist Win 11-10 940.1 Jul 8th Philly Invite 2018
157 Sabotage Win 12-9 1165.07 Jul 8th Philly Invite 2018
152 Peep Show Loss 8-9 730.36 Jul 8th Philly Invite 2018
50 Grand Army Loss 7-12 849.17 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
79 8 Bit Heroes Loss 9-12 897.85 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
126 American Hyperbole Win 10-9 1107.26 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
179 LORD Win 9-8 806.22 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
101 Tyrannis Loss 6-11 565.7 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
149 Crucible Win 12-6 1459.02 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
92 Garbage Plates Win 14-10 1562.06 Aug 25th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
133 Townies Loss 12-13 836.15 Aug 25th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
171 North Coast Win 15-7 1350.72 Aug 25th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
203 Zen Win 13-6 1150.69 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
92 Garbage Plates Loss 6-8 862.86 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
133 Townies Win 11-10 1086.15 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
32 UNION Loss 5-11 940.8 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
32 UNION Loss 3-13 940.8 Sep 9th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
124 Albany Airbenders Win 8-7 1137.1 Sep 9th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
124 Albany Airbenders Win 10-8 1274.77 Sep 9th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
242 Buffalo Brain Freeze** Win 13-1 670.2 Ignored Sep 9th Upstate New York Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)