#149 Crucible (14-23)

avg: 879.71  •  sd: 68.03  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
60 NC Galaxy Loss 7-13 740.02 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2018
15 Toro** Loss 3-13 1160.64 Ignored Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2018
126 American Hyperbole Loss 9-12 636.89 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2018
192 RnB Loss 10-13 290.63 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2018
212 Mixed Results Win 15-7 1114.05 Jun 24th Summer Glazed Daze 2018
156 Heavy Flow Loss 9-15 324.08 Jun 24th Summer Glazed Daze 2018
98 Cahoots Loss 8-13 625.85 Jun 24th Summer Glazed Daze 2018
192 RnB Win 14-11 932.11 Jun 24th Summer Glazed Daze 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Loss 9-11 646.45 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
- Sabers** Win 11-3 662.84 Ignored Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
77 Tequila Mockingbird Loss 7-11 786 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
208 Bonfire Win 11-5 1134.69 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
217 Mastodon Win 11-10 608.04 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
129 Moonshine Loss 12-13 846.57 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
198 Second Wind Win 15-4 1181.25 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
137 ELevate Win 15-11 1323.03 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
101 Tyrannis Loss 4-13 512.39 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
163 Stoke Win 11-7 1263.51 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
95 Ant Madness Win 11-7 1614.17 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
144 Rat City Loss 11-12 765.57 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
114 Buffalo Lake Effect Loss 6-12 462.43 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
179 LORD Win 12-8 1122.37 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
163 Stoke Loss 11-12 671.61 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
158 Philly Twist Win 8-7 940.1 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
59 Distelfink Loss 7-11 833.82 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
113 The Bandits Win 10-8 1306.16 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
30 Jughandle Win 8-6 1857.84 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
157 Sabotage Loss 7-9 540.37 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
26 Alloy Loss 7-13 1031.82 Sep 9th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
59 Distelfink Loss 8-9 1175.71 Sep 9th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
30 Jughandle** Loss 5-13 957.35 Ignored Sep 9th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
132 HVAC Loss 9-13 543.96 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
1 AMP** Loss 3-13 1553.89 Ignored Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
95 Ant Madness Loss 5-13 547.28 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
99 Legion Loss 9-15 599.78 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
117 The Process Win 11-9 1281.59 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
113 The Bandits Loss 3-7 443.49 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)