#42 The Chad Larson Experience (3-7)

avg: 1495.29  •  sd: 61.23  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
46 Revival Win 11-10 1578.7 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
16 'Shine Loss 7-15 1220.62 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
17 Hybrid Win 10-9 1926.77 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
49 Jughandle Win 13-11 1635.61 Jul 16th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
12 Rally Loss 9-12 1512.53 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
17 Hybrid Loss 10-12 1563.65 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
24 Toro Loss 8-13 1220.64 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
34 Dirty Bird Loss 10-11 1458.11 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
37 Impact Loss 8-9 1425.49 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
20 Love Tractor Loss 10-12 1496.04 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)