#153 Buffalo Lake Effect (14-19)

avg: 859.03  •  sd: 61.11  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
49 League of Shadows Loss 7-15 837.71 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
86 The Feminists Loss 11-13 935.31 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
34 XIST** Loss 3-13 930.24 Ignored Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
3 AMP Loss 6-12 1448.84 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
120 Battleship Loss 5-9 519.27 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
7 Wild Card** Loss 3-15 1273.76 Ignored Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
51 Darkwing Loss 5-14 810.14 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
248 Second Wind Win 11-3 977.22 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
282 Sabers** Win 11-1 709.75 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
217 Stackcats Win 8-7 693.52 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
33 Hybrid Loss 6-8 1245.91 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
196 Petey's Scallywags Win 11-4 1246.12 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
74 Petey's Pirates Win 9-8 1354.88 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
156 EMU Loss 7-9 566.67 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
190 LORD Win 13-3 1265.35 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
271 Tropics Ultimate** Win 13-3 842.71 Ignored Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
209 TBD Win 12-8 1042.76 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
92 The Bandits Loss 5-13 534.35 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
201 Nautilus Loss 4-15 32.77 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
103 Soft Boiled Loss 9-14 636.88 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
91 Garbage Plates Loss 5-6 1010.45 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
186 Townies Win 8-7 812.37 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
202 Zen Loss 7-8 507.58 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
181 Mashed Loss 8-10 453.8 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
232 Buffalo Brain Freeze Win 10-3 1053.08 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
181 Mashed Win 9-8 841.47 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
263 Albany Airbenders Win 12-6 855.04 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
186 Townies Win 10-3 1287.37 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
51 Darkwing Loss 6-13 810.14 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
34 XIST** Loss 1-13 930.24 Ignored Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
71 Chaotic Good Loss 4-13 634.05 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
86 The Feminists Loss 11-12 1039.15 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
150 Scarecrow Win 10-9 987.02 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)