#63 Toast (22-9)

avg: 1277.36  •  sd: 51.22  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
211 Mastodon** Win 11-1 1188.66 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
175 Prion Win 10-7 1130.99 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
33 Hybrid Loss 7-12 1025.89 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
156 EMU Win 8-5 1299.61 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
132 Liquid Hustle Win 11-10 1092.47 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
248 Second Wind** Win 13-5 977.22 Ignored Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
65 Northern Comfort Win 13-9 1681.66 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
122 Nothing's Great Again Win 13-11 1264.7 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
107 Shakedown Win 13-11 1321.7 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
152 Melt Win 13-9 1279.89 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
111 PanIC Loss 13-14 942.97 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
107 Shakedown Win 13-9 1511.42 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
40 Chalice Loss 8-13 988.65 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
121 Stripes Win 13-9 1461.44 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
126 Risky Business Win 13-6 1610.25 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
65 Northern Comfort Win 6-5 1388.1 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
33 Hybrid Loss 4-10 946.4 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
40 Chalice Loss 6-7 1359.8 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
154 Goose Lee Win 13-7 1414.65 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
254 Derby City Thunder** Win 13-2 929.34 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
166 Moonshine Win 15-3 1403.66 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
248 Second Wind** Win 13-5 977.22 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
33 Hybrid Win 16-14 1754.7 Sep 8th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
24 Steamboat Loss 5-15 1050.58 Sep 8th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
154 Goose Lee Win 13-9 1275.69 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
33 Hybrid Loss 7-11 1079.51 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
121 Stripes Win 11-9 1292.08 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
122 Nothing's Great Again Win 13-11 1264.7 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
23 U54 Ultimate Loss 4-13 1053.2 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
121 Stripes Win 11-8 1408.48 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
74 Petey's Pirates Loss 11-12 1104.88 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Club Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)