#142 Superstition (12-14)

avg: 897.8  •  sd: 52.67  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
97 California Burrito Loss 9-10 995.63 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
88 Alchemy Loss 6-11 606.46 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Win 11-10 850.2 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
218 Megalodon Win 13-11 788.45 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Win 11-9 974.4 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
96 Robot Loss 8-13 624.57 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
148 Sweet Action Win 13-10 1199.2 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
235 Fear and Loathing Win 11-10 558.83 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Win 11-8 1090.8 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
56 Rubix Loss 6-11 787.78 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
69 Instant Karma Loss 5-5 1242.53 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
48 Pivot Loss 11-15 1059.35 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
197 HAOS Win 12-8 1086.4 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
89 HVAC Loss 7-11 685.57 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
215 Espionage Win 11-9 827.54 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
180 Varsity Win 13-7 1276.87 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
109 Birds Loss 9-10 953.47 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
85 Eat Lightning Loss 3-10 565.11 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
144 Philly Twist Loss 8-10 629.75 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
97 California Burrito Loss 7-13 563.1 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
235 Fear and Loathing Win 12-10 671.95 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
48 Pivot Win 15-14 1565.51 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
177 Spoiler Alert Win 14-4 1330.49 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
98 Family Style Loss 8-12 677.16 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
30 Lotus** Loss 1-13 1017.38 Ignored Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
56 Rubix Loss 6-11 787.78 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)