#163 VU (16-17)

avg: 870.8  •  sd: 53.51  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
116 Absolute Zero Loss 6-9 686.26 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
29 Lotus** Loss 4-10 1043.08 Ignored Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
101 Robot Loss 5-11 567.93 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
267 Sebastopol Orchard Win 8-6 603.07 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
259 Party Cats-D Win 10-4 961.46 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
233 Feral Cows Win 13-9 908.69 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
76 Firefly Loss 6-12 691.32 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
176 Spoiler Alert Loss 10-11 656.43 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
80 Alchemy Loss 4-13 653.48 Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
239 Fear and Loathing Win 11-9 727.57 Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
36 Garage Sale** Loss 3-13 963.38 Ignored Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
95 Platypi Loss 7-11 711.5 Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
108 Argo Loss 7-11 675.03 Jun 30th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
299 Delta Breeze** Win 15-6 600 Ignored Jun 30th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
233 Feral Cows Win 13-9 908.69 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
176 Spoiler Alert Win 8-7 906.43 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
260 Happy Cows Win 10-4 954.29 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
158 Sweet Action Loss 7-11 436.44 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
259 Party Cats-D Loss 5-11 -238.54 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
198 Birds of Paradise Win 13-8 1194.42 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
215 Megalodon Win 13-6 1229.01 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
259 Party Cats-D Win 13-5 961.46 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
184 DR Win 11-6 1302.61 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
233 Feral Cows Win 12-6 1069.44 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
145 The Los Gatos Gatos-Senior Loss 7-11 477.73 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
67 American Barbecue Loss 8-10 1066.75 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
98 Buckwild Loss 5-9 645.27 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
233 Feral Cows Win 9-6 908.69 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
20 Polar Bears Loss 6-11 1209.36 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
116 Absolute Zero Win 8-7 1229.82 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
80 Alchemy Loss 7-9 974.14 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
98 Buckwild Loss 8-12 733.17 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
145 The Los Gatos Gatos-Senior Win 12-9 1289.99 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)