#141 Point of No Return (11-9)

avg: 898.63  •  sd: 55.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
76 Mojo Jojo Loss 9-13 805.37 Jul 20th Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
117 Bird Win 12-11 1181.38 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
225 Boomtown Pandas Win 11-5 1119.51 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
279 Identity Theft** Win 13-4 755.32 Ignored Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
76 Mojo Jojo Loss 7-9 944.6 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
295 Fox Valley Forge** Win 13-5 255.54 Ignored Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
156 EMU Loss 13-14 721 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
137 Mad Udderburn Win 13-10 1255.7 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
211 Mastodon Win 13-7 1146.19 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
152 Melt Win 7-5 1189.46 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
107 Shakedown Loss 7-10 703.19 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
175 Prion Loss 8-9 616.33 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
241 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Win 13-8 915.1 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
279 Identity Theft Win 13-8 651.48 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
176 Mousetrap Win 13-10 1060.57 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
38 Minnesota Star Power Loss 8-13 1015.6 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
65 Northern Comfort Loss 9-11 1013.89 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
137 Mad Udderburn Loss 8-12 486.4 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
152 Melt Win 12-10 1099.44 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
176 Mousetrap Loss 9-11 483.22 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)