#194 Nautilus (12-14)

avg: 703.4  •  sd: 68.74  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
264 Albany Airbenders Loss 8-11 -33.76 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
39 Darkwing** Loss 4-13 941.07 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
210 Face Off Win 10-9 782.87 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
258 Equinox Win 8-7 490.21 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
264 Albany Airbenders Win 8-4 896.66 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
212 Sorted Beans Loss 7-8 524.6 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 4-13 577.86 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
173 Alt Stacks Win 10-7 1181.83 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
231 Buffalo Brain Freeze Win 13-3 1111.11 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
216 Espionage Loss 10-11 493.95 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
117 PS Loss 10-13 771.18 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
151 Buffalo Lake Effect Win 15-4 1523.09 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
177 Unlimited Swipes Loss 12-13 655.86 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
247 Pandatime Win 13-2 1047.97 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
96 Birds Loss 5-10 604.49 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
264 Albany Airbenders Win 13-7 889.38 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
112 Stoke Loss 2-12 513.57 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
216 Espionage Loss 3-9 18.95 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
266 I-79 Win 13-4 915.46 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
208 TBD Loss 6-9 243.14 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
86 Eat Lightning Loss 13-15 1007.66 Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
120 Funk Loss 7-17 486.78 Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
280 Skyscrapers Win 14-7 786.67 Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
296 Pink pear 2019** Win 15-3 283.89 Ignored Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
177 Unlimited Swipes Loss 8-11 415.25 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
280 Skyscrapers Win 13-2 803.78 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)