#88 Toast (20-8)

avg: 1176.79  •  sd: 74.15  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Win 11-2 1194.46 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
137 ELevate Win 11-3 1541.87 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
125 Hybrid Win 10-9 1132.61 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
186 Jabba Win 11-6 1196.89 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
198 Second Wind Win 11-1 1181.25 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Win 15-9 1411.14 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
45 Northern Comfort Win 15-9 1951.34 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
32 UNION Loss 5-15 940.8 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
112 Mojo Jojo Win 13-9 1480.95 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
34 Woodwork Loss 9-13 1096.81 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
70 Chalice Win 11-10 1401.63 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
77 Tequila Mockingbird Win 14-12 1473.85 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
45 Northern Comfort Loss 7-15 835.86 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
93 Thoroughbred Loss 10-15 702.94 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
129 Moonshine Win 13-5 1571.57 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Win 13-5 1194.46 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
198 Second Wind Win 13-5 1181.25 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
38 Columbus Cocktails Loss 10-15 1046.69 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
125 Hybrid Win 15-7 1607.61 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
86 Commitment Issues Win 14-13 1315.13 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
36 Steamboat Win 12-11 1630.39 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
147 Goose Lee Win 10-8 1146.27 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
146 Prion Win 13-10 1213.16 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
68 Nothing's Great Again Loss 8-13 785.15 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
134 Petey's Pirates Loss 9-15 442.27 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
129 Moonshine Win 11-10 1096.57 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
186 Jabba Win 15-14 775.2 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
104 Shakedown Loss 10-11 975.57 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)