#97 Sunken Circus (19-7)

avg: 1177.86  •  sd: 57.02  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
264 Albany Airbenders** Win 15-3 931.85 Ignored Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
199 HAOS Win 11-7 1163.84 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
224 Side Hustle Win 15-1 1185.83 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
124 Happy Valley Win 10-7 1457.03 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
212 Sorted Beans Win 15-3 1249.6 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
148 Scarecrow Win 10-3 1528.71 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
204 Rainbow Win 11-6 1227.74 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
212 Sorted Beans Win 12-8 1090.75 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
133 Night Shift Win 11-8 1385.67 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
290 Rising Tide U20X** Win 13-3 566.08 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
39 Darkwing Loss 4-9 941.07 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
148 Scarecrow Win 13-7 1486.24 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
194 Nautilus Win 13-4 1303.4 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
204 Rainbow Win 12-6 1260.35 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
197 x-C Win 13-7 1257.22 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
133 Night Shift Loss 8-12 578.91 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
81 The Feminists Loss 12-13 1127.72 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
86 Eat Lightning Win 12-8 1662.99 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
210 Face Off Win 13-7 1215.4 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
148 Scarecrow Win 12-8 1369.86 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
61 Chaotic Good Loss 9-12 1006.5 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
39 Darkwing Loss 8-10 1278.4 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
275 Dead Reckoning** Win 17-3 849.24 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
35 League of Shadows Loss 6-14 963.4 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
148 Scarecrow Win 11-8 1294.32 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
133 Night Shift Loss 8-14 484.02 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)