#71 Chaotic Good (18-14)

avg: 1234.05  •  sd: 48.94  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 Battleship Win 10-9 1173.33 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
8 Slow White Loss 6-15 1230.45 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
51 Darkwing Win 11-7 1877.03 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
57 Metro North Win 9-8 1454.01 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
12 Snake Country Loss 6-15 1192.02 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
49 League of Shadows Loss 5-15 837.71 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
57 Metro North Loss 11-14 1015.67 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
115 Stoke Win 15-12 1360.61 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
144 Philly Twist Win 15-2 1492.41 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
110 Rat City Win 15-10 1527.9 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
179 Unlimited Swipes Win 15-4 1323.99 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
77 Ant Madness Loss 10-11 1096.61 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
110 Rat City Loss 11-12 949.3 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
131 Farm Show Win 11-7 1440.72 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
221 District Cocktails** Win 13-4 1143.74 Ignored Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
128 Legion Win 12-8 1432.81 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
136 Crucible Win 13-5 1531.51 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
87 Fleet Win 11-9 1412.92 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
44 Grand Army Loss 8-12 1020.29 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
32 Storm Loss 5-14 961.32 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
133 Night Shift Win 17-4 1561.88 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
203 Rainbow** Win 16-5 1229.93 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
93 Sunken Circus Win 12-9 1478.76 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
7 Wild Card Loss 9-15 1358.28 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
203 Rainbow** Win 15-5 1229.93 Ignored Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
49 League of Shadows Loss 8-15 872.9 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
44 Grand Army Loss 5-15 861.45 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
153 Buffalo Lake Effect Win 13-4 1459.03 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
34 XIST Loss 6-13 930.24 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
51 Darkwing Loss 9-10 1285.14 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
150 Scarecrow Win 15-8 1426.83 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
86 The Feminists Loss 9-15 648.67 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)