#45 Waterloo (19-3)

avg: 1447.57  •  sd: 83.1  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
284 Mixed on the Rock** Win 11-0 680.36 Ignored Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
247 rubber duck ultimate.** Win 11-1 985.15 Ignored Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
183 Wildstyle** Win 11-3 1312.34 Ignored Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
78 Memphis STAX Win 11-5 1807.34 Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
224 Mud Turtles** Win 15-3 1127.86 Ignored Jul 27th PBJ 2019
230 Discney Win 15-7 1060.77 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
126 Risky Business Win 15-6 1610.25 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
113 blOKC party Win 15-11 1447.85 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
262 Balloon** Win 15-3 878.14 Ignored Jul 28th PBJ 2019
129 Moontower Win 15-10 1441.79 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
224 Mud Turtles** Win 13-2 1127.86 Ignored Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
270 Boomshakalaka** Win 13-1 842.71 Ignored Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
214 Chili Poppers** Win 13-4 1180.52 Ignored Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
183 Wildstyle Win 13-8 1208.5 Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 Bexar Win 12-8 1635.73 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
126 Risky Business Win 11-9 1259.45 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
14 Public Enemy Loss 8-12 1318.75 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
53 Boomtown Win 13-7 1902.66 Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
129 Moontower Win 13-4 1588.19 Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
135 Springs Mixed Ulty Team Win 13-9 1372.36 Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
6 shame. Loss 12-15 1627.51 Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
59 Flight Club Loss 10-12 1072.45 Sep 22nd South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)