#25 Alloy (18-12)

avg: 1709.76  •  sd: 58.45  •  top 16/20: 8.5%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
2 AMP Loss 7-13 1549.84 Jun 9th AMP Invite 2019
23 Rally Win 10-9 1836.34 Jun 9th AMP Invite 2019
10 Space Heater Loss 7-12 1377.12 Jun 9th AMP Invite 2019
37 Jughandle Loss 9-11 1313.76 Jun 9th AMP Invite 2019
72 Ant Madness Win 13-5 1876.3 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
55 Malice in Wonderland Win 13-4 2009.77 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
27 Storm Win 13-6 2253.05 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
57 8 Bit Heroes Win 11-10 1516.87 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
16 Weird Loss 9-11 1547.59 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
40 Murmur Loss 11-12 1415.03 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
15 Loco Loss 6-9 1383.77 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
67 American Barbecue Win 13-7 1886.95 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
33 Hybrid Loss 10-12 1362.44 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
19 The Chad Larson Experience Loss 5-13 1159.72 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
27 Storm Win 12-11 1778.05 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
5 Wild Card Win 13-12 2127.74 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
18 Columbus Cocktails Loss 12-13 1637.6 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
17 Steamboat Win 11-6 2323.95 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
68 Metro North Win 13-6 1915.24 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
17 Steamboat Loss 8-9 1652.25 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
46 Sparkle Ponies Win 12-9 1835.58 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
23 Rally Win 12-10 1949.46 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
27 Storm Win 13-8 2149.21 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
21 Bucket Loss 8-15 1158.4 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
266 I-79** Win 13-2 915.46 Ignored Sep 7th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
112 Stoke Win 13-7 1671.1 Sep 7th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
126 Farm Show Win 15-8 1612.32 Sep 7th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
88 The Bandits Win 14-6 1802.88 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
15 Loco Loss 10-12 1564.21 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
112 Stoke Win 15-7 1713.57 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)