#55 American Barbecue (17-18)

avg: 1324.28  •  sd: 72.79  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
245 Hot Stix** Win 13-0 564.35 Ignored Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
119 Buckwild Win 10-7 1420.76 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
61 Donuts Loss 7-9 1012.79 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
190 DR Win 10-5 1209.05 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
35 Classy Loss 9-12 1168.35 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
85 Platypi Win 11-5 1790.67 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
61 Donuts Win 10-5 1866.02 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
7 Blackbird Loss 7-15 1291.68 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 5-15 1139.68 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
37 BW Ultimate Loss 6-9 1082 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
74 Alchemy Loss 7-10 875.53 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
62 Long Beach Legacy Loss 8-14 755.76 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
67 Firefly Loss 5-11 682.6 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
39 Minnesota Star Power Loss 8-12 1058.38 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
6 Snake Country** Loss 5-13 1342.98 Ignored Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
81 Pegasus Win 11-10 1362.29 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
118 Risky Business Win 13-4 1631.4 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
29 7 Figures Loss 4-12 960.38 Aug 19th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
61 Donuts Win 12-6 1871.44 Aug 19th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
39 Minnesota Star Power Loss 8-13 1003.37 Aug 19th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
131 Absolute Zero Win 13-9 1384.62 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
161 AC Bandits Win 13-4 1400.29 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 6-13 1139.68 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
67 Firefly Win 10-8 1545.27 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
37 BW Ultimate Loss 10-12 1262.44 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
85 Platypi Win 13-11 1419.51 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
67 Firefly Win 13-5 1882.6 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
37 BW Ultimate Win 11-8 1866.17 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
29 7 Figures Loss 11-13 1331.54 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
61 Donuts Win 13-9 1710.69 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
47 ROBOS Loss 10-13 1059.2 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 7-13 1182.15 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
71 Robot Loss 7-13 717.37 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
51 Cutthroat Win 14-12 1578.64 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
48 Rubix Win 13-11 1607.68 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)