#85 HVAC (19-8)

avg: 1231.84  •  sd: 59.37  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
270 Baltimore BENCH** Win 13-4 892.64 Ignored Jul 13th Battle for the Beltway 2019
223 District Cocktails** Win 13-5 1187.92 Ignored Jul 13th Battle for the Beltway 2019
191 LORD Win 13-8 1210.06 Jul 13th Battle for the Beltway 2019
291 Swing Vote** Win 13-1 547.91 Ignored Jul 13th Battle for the Beltway 2019
131 Legion Win 15-11 1410.81 Jul 14th Battle for the Beltway 2019
103 Tyrannis Loss 10-12 921.91 Jul 14th Battle for the Beltway 2019
72 Ant Madness Win 12-10 1514.42 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
195 Heavy Flow Win 13-6 1301.66 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
139 Tequila Mockingbird Win 12-10 1223.51 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
115 Rat City Win 13-8 1601.83 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
23 Rally Loss 12-14 1490.38 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
68 Metro North Loss 11-12 1190.24 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
216 Espionage Win 13-8 1115.11 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
199 HAOS Win 13-5 1296.95 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
180 Varsity Win 13-1 1372.77 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
143 Superstition Win 11-7 1417.17 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
120 Funk Loss 5-13 486.78 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
142 Philly Twist Win 9-5 1481.35 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
94 Soft Boiled Loss 9-10 1056.95 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
281 Nottoway Flatball Club** Win 13-5 784.96 Ignored Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
223 District Cocktails Win 13-6 1187.92 Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
195 Heavy Flow Win 13-8 1197.82 Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
103 Tyrannis Win 13-10 1488.17 Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
72 Ant Madness Loss 9-13 857.74 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
90 Fleet Loss 9-13 778.58 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
23 Rally Loss 8-15 1146.53 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
115 Rat City Win 13-4 1705.67 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)