#176 Mousetrap (16-17)

avg: 732.43  •  sd: 61.23  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
225 Boomtown Pandas Loss 10-11 394.51 Jul 20th Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
294 MUTT** Win 12-1 291.99 Ignored Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
219 Great Minnesota Get Together Win 10-6 1052.57 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
240 Duloofda Loss 9-11 170.36 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
241 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Win 8-4 983.75 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
295 Fox Valley Forge** Win 13-0 255.54 Ignored Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
156 EMU Loss 10-13 517.86 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
111 PanIC Loss 10-13 739.83 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
112 Pandamonium Loss 8-11 701.49 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
279 Identity Theft Win 13-4 755.32 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
199 Jabba Win 13-8 1132.88 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
250 Mishigami Loss 7-11 -103.47 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
219 Great Minnesota Get Together Win 12-9 901.77 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
168 ELevate Win 10-9 905.15 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
152 Melt Loss 11-13 632.48 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
240 Duloofda Win 8-6 720.06 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
156 EMU Win 10-9 971 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
137 Mad Udderburn Win 8-6 1228.05 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
175 Prion Loss 7-10 351.66 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
241 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Win 11-9 668.14 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
279 Identity Theft Win 13-4 755.32 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
141 Point of No Return Loss 10-13 570.49 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
38 Minnesota Star Power Loss 8-13 1015.6 Sep 7th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
137 Mad Udderburn Loss 3-13 327.56 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
152 Melt Win 10-9 986.32 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
141 Point of No Return Win 11-9 1147.84 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
208 Pushovers-B Win 11-7 1069.06 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
28 No Touching!** Loss 4-13 1031.52 Ignored Sep 21st North Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
31 NOISE** Loss 3-13 988.38 Ignored Sep 21st North Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
117 Bird Loss 8-10 793.71 Sep 21st North Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
111 PanIC Loss 8-13 571.81 Sep 21st North Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
137 Mad Udderburn Loss 11-15 546.39 Sep 22nd North Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
143 Impact Loss 13-15 680.78 Sep 22nd North Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)