#74 Alchemy (14-15)

avg: 1265.2  •  sd: 57.33  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
161 AC Bandits Win 15-3 1400.29 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
182 Sebastopol Orchard Win 12-4 1272.27 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
35 Classy Loss 7-8 1388.71 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
170 Spoiler Alert Win 12-5 1358.52 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
61 Donuts Win 10-7 1681.79 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
- Brewcade Loss 7-12 1045.31 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
35 Classy Loss 8-11 1148.1 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
29 7 Figures Loss 6-12 981.07 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
12 Mischief Loss 4-14 1184.35 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
35 Classy Loss 9-10 1388.71 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
23 Lights Out Loss 7-13 1056.93 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
37 BW Ultimate Loss 5-7 1172.42 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
55 American Barbecue Win 10-7 1713.95 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
199 Wasatch Sasquatch Win 13-7 1135.88 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
110 California Burrito Win 11-7 1533.98 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
143 Bulleit Train Win 11-2 1491.6 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
47 ROBOS Win 13-7 1944.87 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
51 Cutthroat Loss 8-13 861.53 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
67 Firefly Loss 11-13 1053.76 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
46 The Administrators Win 13-9 1814.37 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
210 VU Win 11-6 1073.35 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
190 DR Win 11-7 1102.04 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
85 Platypi Win 11-6 1737.37 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
12 Mischief Loss 3-11 1184.35 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
136 Lawn Patrol Win 11-4 1548.72 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
51 Cutthroat Loss 8-13 861.53 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
67 Firefly Loss 12-13 1157.6 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
85 Platypi Loss 10-11 1065.67 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
61 Donuts Loss 7-13 734.59 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)