#153 Jackpot (16-13)

avg: 920.99  •  sd: 53.78  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
73 Petey's Pirates Loss 4-13 674.68 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
23 Rally Loss 8-13 1215.18 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
13 Toro** Loss 2-13 1250.48 Ignored Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
62 JLP Loss 8-13 854.85 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
274 Rampage** Win 13-4 853.59 Ignored Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
119 Seoulmates Loss 8-12 648.38 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
181 Piedmont United Win 13-9 1188.98 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
167 Possum Win 6-3 1382.8 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
252 Big Bend Win 13-3 1012.1 Jul 12th Swan Boat 2019
207 FIRE ULTIMATE CLUB MIAMI Win 12-11 788.97 Jul 12th Swan Boat 2019
225 Monster Win 10-8 845.57 Jul 12th Swan Boat 2019
278 Baywatch Win 13-9 633.82 Jul 13th Swan Boat 2019
207 FIRE ULTIMATE CLUB MIAMI Win 13-8 1160.13 Jul 14th Swan Boat 2019
255 Mixchief Win 15-6 1000.84 Jul 14th Swan Boat 2019
99 Mutiny Loss 3-15 570.48 Jul 14th Swan Boat 2019
34 'Shine** Loss 4-13 988.45 Ignored Aug 10th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
132 Liquid Hustle Loss 12-13 898.82 Aug 10th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
40 Murmur** Loss 4-13 940.03 Ignored Aug 10th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
62 JLP Loss 7-12 830.5 Aug 10th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
103 Tyrannis Loss 8-13 663.87 Aug 11th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
175 Moonshine Win 11-3 1381.83 Aug 11th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
113 sKNO cone Win 5-2 1711.67 Aug 11th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
159 Rowdy Win 9-7 1179.98 Aug 11th HoDown ShowDown 23 GOAT
278 Baywatch** Win 13-4 815.25 Ignored Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
271 Bold City Win 10-5 861.21 Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
207 FIRE ULTIMATE CLUB MIAMI Loss 7-10 274.3 Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
16 Weird** Loss 2-13 1196.8 Ignored Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
252 Big Bend Win 12-5 1012.1 Sep 8th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
255 Mixchief Win 11-5 1000.84 Sep 8th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)