#41 BW Ultimate (8-11)

avg: 1539.26  •  sd: 81.14  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
28 Lights Out Loss 11-12 1518.61 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
24 MOONDOG Loss 9-11 1461.23 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
68 Metro North Loss 10-11 1190.24 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
64 The Administrators Loss 9-10 1219.95 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
48 Classy Loss 5-9 937.29 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
66 Flight Club Loss 10-11 1208.31 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
5 Wild Card Loss 7-14 1419.86 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
13 Toro Loss 6-14 1250.48 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
30 No Touching! Loss 9-10 1515.73 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
11 Lochsa Win 13-12 2008.75 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
37 Jughandle Win 6-4 1928.57 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
116 Absolute Zero Win 13-7 1662.36 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
299 Delta Breeze** Win 13-1 600 Ignored Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
95 Platypi Win 13-2 1778.4 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
54 Cutthroat Win 12-9 1775.18 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
12 Blackbird Loss 11-13 1650.89 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
48 Classy Win 10-9 1591.35 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
59 Donuts Loss 9-10 1258.86 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
48 Classy Win 10-7 1856.01 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)