#129 Moonshine (23-12)

avg: 971.57  •  sd: 56.21  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
147 Goose Lee Win 10-6 1379.77 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
155 Liquid Hustle Win 9-7 1121.16 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
32 UNION Loss 6-10 1044.64 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
45 Northern Comfort Loss 4-11 835.86 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
223 Petey's Scallywags Win 9-5 889.75 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
172 Los Heros Win 15-10 1198.38 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
149 Crucible Win 13-12 1004.71 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
147 Goose Lee Win 15-11 1264.77 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
198 Second Wind Win 11-6 1127.95 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
238 Strictly Bidness Win 10-5 761.31 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
223 Petey's Scallywags** Win 11-1 960.69 Ignored Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
235 Skyhawks** Win 11-4 844.51 Ignored Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
- Pocket City Approach** Win 11-2 865.94 Ignored Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
222 I-79 Win 13-6 984.34 Jul 22nd Bourbon Bash 2018
134 Petey's Pirates Win 9-8 1082.75 Jul 22nd Bourbon Bash 2018
122 Huntsville Outlaws Loss 8-12 575.57 Jul 22nd Bourbon Bash 2018
56 Murmur Loss 9-11 1071.96 Aug 11th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
155 Liquid Hustle Win 13-9 1260.39 Aug 11th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
151 LoveShack Loss 8-13 360.27 Aug 11th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
98 Cahoots Loss 8-13 625.85 Aug 11th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
205 Fifth Element Win 13-12 668.99 Aug 12th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
98 Cahoots Win 12-9 1467.38 Aug 12th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
82 Method Loss 8-13 736.46 Aug 12th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
151 LoveShack Win 11-9 1105.64 Aug 12th HoDown%20ShowDown%20XXII
198 Second Wind Win 13-3 1181.25 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Win 13-7 1151.99 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
88 Toast Loss 5-13 576.79 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
134 Petey's Pirates Win 15-11 1338.92 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
86 Commitment Issues Loss 8-15 625.32 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
125 Hybrid Win 13-6 1607.61 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
186 Jabba Win 13-12 775.2 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Win 13-12 1020.66 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
38 Columbus Cocktails Loss 4-13 900.3 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
125 Hybrid Loss 8-13 511.45 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
88 Toast Loss 10-11 1051.79 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)