#124 Happy Valley (11-5)

avg: 1067.36  •  sd: 71.72  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
212 Sorted Beans Win 13-10 977.74 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
258 Equinox** Win 15-6 965.21 Ignored Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
204 Rainbow Win 12-10 919.16 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
96 Birds Win 15-8 1743.2 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
199 HAOS Win 15-7 1296.95 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 7-10 788.2 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
39 Darkwing Loss 6-13 941.07 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
210 Face Off Win 13-6 1257.87 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
88 The Bandits Loss 10-13 874.74 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
148 Scarecrow Win 13-7 1486.24 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
212 Sorted Beans Win 12-11 774.6 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
81 The Feminists Loss 6-11 706.03 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
133 Night Shift Loss 11-12 895.06 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
229 Enough Monkeys Win 15-9 1039.59 Sep 7th West New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
224 Side Hustle Win 14-11 899.16 Sep 7th West New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
137 Default Win 15-10 1453.67 Sep 7th West New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)