#56 Grand Army (10-9)

avg: 1401.86  •  sd: 68.71  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
66 Flight Club Win 14-7 1916.19 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
26 Public Enemy Loss 9-15 1182.81 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
51 Minnesota Star Power Win 13-12 1584.03 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
28 Lights Out Loss 8-11 1278 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
52 Mesteño Loss 8-13 945.59 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
68 Metro North Win 10-9 1440.24 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
57 8 Bit Heroes Loss 8-12 950.72 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
21 Bucket Loss 8-13 1227.05 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
35 League of Shadows Loss 10-13 1235.25 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
27 Storm Loss 10-12 1414.92 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
61 Chaotic Good Win 12-8 1793.02 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
46 Sparkle Ponies Loss 12-14 1269.26 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
68 Metro North Loss 11-12 1190.24 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
173 Alt Stacks** Win 13-5 1392.17 Ignored Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
180 Varsity** Win 15-4 1372.77 Ignored Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
280 Skyscrapers** Win 15-1 803.78 Ignored Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
208 TBD** Win 15-1 1261.71 Ignored Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
86 Eat Lightning Win 15-12 1522.33 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
68 Metro North Win 13-3 1915.24 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)