#24 Rally (22-15)

avg: 1611.11  •  sd: 51.92  •  top 16/20: 3.2%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
26 Alloy Loss 11-12 1464.35 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
1 AMP Loss 9-15 1638.4 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
5 Space Heater Loss 9-14 1489.07 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
30 Jughandle Loss 11-13 1328.51 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
49 Cosa Nostra Win 10-8 1634.45 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
93 Thoroughbred Win 11-8 1522.15 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
14 Lochsa Win 11-10 1888.72 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
13 Birdfruit Win 9-8 1904.29 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
32 UNION Win 13-7 2098.33 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
19 Bucket Win 10-9 1830.23 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 7-13 1182.15 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
27 Weird Win 11-7 2044.74 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
87 Sparkle Ponies Win 11-5 1777.43 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
41 Storm Win 10-8 1741.83 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
6 Snake Country Loss 9-12 1597.61 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
31 Metro North Win 12-8 1997.47 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
6 Snake Country Loss 7-12 1422.47 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
9 Wild Card Loss 7-15 1273.65 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
1 AMP Loss 10-13 1825.74 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
2 Seattle Mixtape Loss 8-15 1456.82 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
11 Slow White Loss 8-15 1262.49 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
22 XIST Win 15-9 2133.53 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
11 Slow White Win 14-13 1952.3 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
- Hott Olson** Win 11-2 967.38 Ignored Sep 8th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
- Huck Norris** Win 11-2 770.97 Ignored Sep 8th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
99 Legion Win 11-8 1480.87 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
- Fireball Win 11-8 1592.11 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
224 Stormborn** Win 11-2 957.45 Ignored Sep 8th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
95 Ant Madness Win 11-3 1747.28 Sep 9th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
5 Space Heater Loss 5-13 1362.94 Sep 9th Capital Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
113 The Bandits Win 13-4 1643.49 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
87 Sparkle Ponies Win 13-11 1406.27 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
18 Loco Loss 8-13 1238.24 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
99 Legion Win 14-9 1589.13 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
79 8 Bit Heroes Win 15-6 1843.22 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
26 Alloy Loss 11-15 1208.19 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
18 Loco Loss 10-12 1496.28 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)