#243 Rogue (3-15)

avg: 410.15  •  sd: 83.8  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
195 Birds of Paradise Win 13-11 877.6 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
69 Instant Karma** Loss 0-15 642.53 Ignored Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
48 Pivot** Loss 1-15 840.51 Ignored Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
235 Fear and Loathing Loss 4-11 -166.17 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Loss 4-13 125.2 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
97 California Burrito** Loss 2-13 520.63 Ignored Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
64 Donuts** Loss 5-13 672.77 Ignored Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
135 Springs Mixed Ulty Team Loss 5-13 353.79 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
129 Moontower Loss 4-13 388.19 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
114 Mixed Signals Loss 6-13 460.51 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
188 The Strangers Loss 4-13 73.76 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
195 Birds of Paradise Loss 6-11 102.07 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
98 Family Style** Loss 1-12 518.32 Ignored Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
30 Lotus** Loss 4-13 1017.38 Ignored Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
96 Robot Loss 4-9 520.72 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
235 Fear and Loathing Win 13-6 1033.83 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Loss 5-13 125.2 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
177 Spoiler Alert Win 10-9 855.49 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)