#49 Cosa Nostra (21-11)

avg: 1371.79  •  sd: 57.58  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
216 Mud Turtles** Win 13-1 1085.18 Ignored Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
118 Risky Business Win 12-8 1472.56 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
104 Shakedown Win 12-9 1445.93 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
64 Sellout Win 14-10 1686.95 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
128 Boomtown Win 12-5 1577.74 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
104 Shakedown Win 11-7 1567.46 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
24 Rally Loss 8-10 1348.44 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
14 Lochsa Loss 1-13 1163.72 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
93 Thoroughbred Win 11-9 1405.75 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
28 Mesteño Loss 7-13 1005 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
39 Minnesota Star Power Loss 9-12 1154.17 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
44 Bozos Win 10-8 1723.33 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
22 XIST Win 11-10 1743.05 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
18 Loco Loss 7-13 1176.87 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
59 Distelfink Win 12-10 1538.83 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
73 Chaotic Good Win 10-7 1655.31 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
32 UNION Loss 8-13 1044.64 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
5 Space Heater Loss 6-13 1362.94 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
227 Mixfits** Win 11-3 933.44 Ignored Sep 8th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
194 Freetail** Win 10-3 1207.61 Ignored Sep 8th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
97 tHUMP Win 11-3 1739.88 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
40 Five One Two Loss 6-11 938.6 Sep 9th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
118 Risky Business Win 9-7 1310.74 Sep 9th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
64 Sellout Loss 6-11 741.55 Sep 9th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
118 Risky Business Win 8-6 1331.89 Sep 9th Texas Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
128 Boomtown Win 13-9 1396.3 Sep 22nd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
89 Sweet Action Win 10-9 1294.03 Sep 22nd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
21 Public Enemy Loss 7-13 1118.12 Sep 22nd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
64 Sellout Win 15-10 1741.85 Sep 22nd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
40 Five One Two Win 15-13 1699.47 Sep 23rd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
8 Love Tractor Loss 9-15 1363.68 Sep 23rd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
89 Sweet Action Win 13-12 1294.03 Sep 23rd South Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)