#66 Firefly (18-16)

avg: 1257.29  •  sd: 55.81  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
237 Feral Cows** Win 13-3 1031.23 Ignored Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
177 Spoiler Alert Win 13-6 1330.49 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
260 Party Cats-D** Win 13-0 901.15 Ignored Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
64 Donuts Win 10-8 1535.43 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
118 Absolute Zero Win 10-9 1179.19 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
163 VU Win 12-6 1393.52 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
30 Lotus Loss 4-15 1017.38 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
42 Classy Loss 8-10 1200.02 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
118 Absolute Zero Win 11-5 1654.19 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
30 Lotus Loss 9-12 1272.02 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
96 Robot Win 13-6 1720.72 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
42 Classy Loss 8-12 1021.53 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
64 Donuts Win 15-4 1872.77 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
30 Lotus Loss 6-15 1017.38 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
50 Cutthroat Loss 8-10 1153.9 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
104 Argo Loss 10-11 976.84 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
164 Wasatch Sasquatch Win 13-3 1406.46 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
114 Mixed Signals Win 13-7 1618.05 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
98 Family Style Loss 8-13 622.16 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
148 Sweet Action Loss 12-13 746.05 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
9 Blackbird Loss 7-13 1268.17 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
88 Alchemy Win 10-8 1415.82 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
184 DR Win 13-5 1297.45 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
218 Megalodon** Win 13-4 1159.61 Ignored Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
50 Cutthroat Loss 8-12 975.41 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
61 American Barbecue Loss 10-11 1173.36 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
104 Argo Win 11-9 1351.04 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
127 Platypi Loss 10-11 879.27 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
88 Alchemy Win 13-4 1753.15 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
61 American Barbecue Win 13-11 1527.2 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
64 Donuts Win 11-9 1521.97 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
17 Polar Bears Loss 3-13 1109.63 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
56 Rubix Loss 11-13 1105.64 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
48 Pivot Loss 10-13 1112.37 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)