#76 Firefly (15-13)

avg: 1270.63  •  sd: 55.81  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
259 Party Cats-D** Win 13-0 961.46 Ignored Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
59 Donuts Win 10-8 1646.53 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
233 Feral Cows** Win 13-3 1090.13 Ignored Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
176 Spoiler Alert Win 13-6 1381.43 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
116 Absolute Zero Win 10-9 1229.82 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
29 Lotus Loss 4-15 1043.08 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
163 VU Win 12-6 1450.11 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
116 Absolute Zero Win 11-5 1704.82 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
48 Classy Loss 8-10 1203.68 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
29 Lotus Loss 9-12 1297.72 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
101 Robot Win 13-6 1767.93 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
48 Classy Loss 8-12 1025.19 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
59 Donuts Win 15-4 1983.86 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
29 Lotus Loss 6-15 1043.08 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
108 Argo Loss 10-11 1016.92 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
54 Cutthroat Loss 8-10 1167.15 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
166 Wasatch Sasquatch Win 13-3 1439.19 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
134 Mixed Signals Win 13-7 1570.77 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
102 Family Style Loss 8-13 671.4 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
158 Sweet Action Loss 12-13 778.34 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
12 Blackbird Loss 7-13 1322.2 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
80 Alchemy Win 10-8 1516.14 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
184 DR Win 13-5 1355.92 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
215 Megalodon** Win 13-4 1229.01 Ignored Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
67 American Barbecue Loss 10-11 1204.41 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
108 Argo Win 11-9 1391.13 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
54 Cutthroat Loss 8-12 988.66 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
95 Platypi Loss 10-11 1053.4 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)