#184 Mousetrap (13-16)

avg: 658.08  •  sd: 57.83  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
166 Spirit Fowl Loss 4-11 187.68 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
228 Mixed Duluth Win 11-6 874.96 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
145 Pandamonium Loss 6-11 338.69 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
130 Impact Loss 9-11 719.62 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
72 Bird** Loss 2-11 666.31 Ignored Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
233 ALTimate Brews Win 11-8 653.97 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
185 Boomtown Pandas Win 10-8 913.18 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
- MN Superior Loss 8-9 532.29 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Loss 7-12 375.15 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
160 Mad Udderburn Loss 5-13 202.17 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
235 Skyhawks Win 13-7 802.04 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
217 Mastodon Win 12-11 608.04 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
25 The Chad Larson Experience** Loss 1-13 1000.75 Ignored Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
111 panIC Loss 8-9 941.49 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
146 Prion Loss 7-10 495.35 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
137 ELevate Loss 5-13 341.87 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
191 Coalition Ultimate Win 13-11 848.52 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
228 Mixed Duluth Win 13-9 746.83 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
186 Jabba Loss 12-13 525.2 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
229 Pushovers-C Win 15-10 771.88 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
191 Coalition Ultimate Win 15-5 1219.68 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
217 Mastodon Win 15-9 998.52 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
- TMI Loss 7-13 287.49 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
185 Boomtown Pandas Loss 9-11 401.3 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
45 Northern Comfort Loss 6-13 835.86 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
202 Great Minnesota Get Together Win 11-9 803 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
191 Coalition Ultimate Win 13-11 848.52 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
- TMI Win 11-10 970.02 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
166 Spirit Fowl Loss 9-13 369.11 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)