#170 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon (10-12)

avg: 807.18  •  sd: 54.67  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
257 Derby City Thunder Win 11-7 843.92 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
193 Hairy Otter Win 14-9 1179.05 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
249 Second Wind Win 14-6 1022.82 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
175 Moonshine Loss 10-11 656.83 Jul 20th Bourbon Bash 2019
140 Crucible Loss 5-12 383.45 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2019
182 Rocket LawnChair Loss 5-6 644.7 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2019
74 Trash Pandas Loss 9-14 800.01 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2019
73 Petey's Pirates Loss 4-13 674.68 Aug 11th CUDA Round Robin 2019
196 Petey's Scallywags Loss 10-13 372.57 Aug 11th CUDA Round Robin 2019
249 Second Wind Win 13-8 918.98 Aug 11th CUDA Round Robin 2019
73 Petey's Pirates Loss 4-13 674.68 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
263 SlipStream Win 13-8 831.71 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
251 Mishigami Win 13-4 1016.19 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
132 Liquid Hustle Loss 10-15 570.22 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
135 Los Heros Loss 9-12 665.71 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
187 Pixel Win 10-8 1003.62 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
33 Hybrid** Loss 3-13 1000.57 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
205 Pi+ Win 13-10 1004.35 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
187 Pixel Win 12-11 865.96 Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
17 Steamboat** Loss 3-15 1177.25 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
155 Goose Lee Win 15-10 1366.81 Sep 8th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
175 Moonshine Loss 12-15 481.34 Sep 8th East Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)