#166 Spirit Fowl (14-16)

avg: 787.68  •  sd: 58.99  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
70 Chalice Loss 5-13 676.63 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
249 LudICRous** Win 13-5 379.2 Ignored Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
93 Thoroughbred Loss 6-13 556.54 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
247 Macalester College[C]** Win 13-2 468.93 Ignored Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
160 Mad Udderburn Loss 7-8 677.17 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
111 panIC Loss 4-11 466.49 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
25 The Chad Larson Experience** Loss 3-13 1000.75 Ignored Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
184 Mousetrap Win 11-4 1258.08 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
233 ALTimate Brews Loss 8-9 163.36 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
72 Bird Loss 9-11 1017.1 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
145 Pandamonium Win 11-7 1352.28 Jul 14th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
130 Impact Win 12-11 1093.83 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
228 Mixed Duluth Win 11-7 795.16 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
72 Bird Loss 7-13 708.78 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
48 Rubix Loss 4-13 778.83 Jul 15th MN Ultimate Disc Invitational 2018
70 Chalice Loss 9-13 858.07 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
229 Pushovers-C Win 13-9 736.84 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
160 Mad Udderburn Win 13-10 1130.31 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
217 Mastodon Win 13-8 979.2 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
185 Boomtown Pandas Win 14-13 775.51 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
145 Pandamonium Loss 10-15 431.78 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
137 ELevate Loss 8-14 405.83 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
112 Mojo Jojo Loss 10-13 734.25 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
191 Coalition Ultimate Win 13-10 947.82 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
228 Mixed Duluth Win 12-7 848.78 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
72 Bird Loss 6-13 666.31 Sep 8th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
184 Mousetrap Win 13-9 1076.64 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
185 Boomtown Pandas Win 13-9 1069.08 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
160 Mad Udderburn Loss 7-13 244.64 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
145 Pandamonium Loss 11-12 760.38 Sep 9th Northwest Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)