#240 PanIC (3-22)

avg: 141.66  •  sd: 64.55  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
210 Chalice Loss 4-15 -139.43 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
205 Locomotion Loss 8-13 21.02 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
104 Queen City Gambit Loss 8-13 553.48 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
212 ELevate Loss 7-13 -114.75 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
132 Mousetrap** Loss 4-13 298.86 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
181 Frostbite Loss 9-11 391.95 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
182 The Force Loss 10-13 311.08 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
231 POW! Loss 7-12 -239.6 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
156 Stackcats Loss 6-13 213.82 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
89 Three Rivers Ultimate Club Loss 9-13 701.74 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
161 Prion** Loss 5-13 183.61 Ignored Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
121 Jabba** Loss 1-15 384.87 Ignored Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
209 Mastodon Loss 10-11 337.95 Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
210 Chalice Loss 9-12 115.21 Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
235 Mad City Vibes Win 11-9 479 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
174 Boomtown Pandas Loss 7-10 323.42 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
227 Arms Race Win 10-7 715.64 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
215 Lake Superior Disc Loss 6-10 -68.66 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
235 Mad City Vibes Loss 7-11 -237.1 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
245 Underdogs Win 12-11 199.21 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
227 Arms Race Loss 9-13 -92.59 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
37 Impact** Loss 1-15 950.49 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
205 Locomotion Loss 8-14 -18.86 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
227 Arms Race Loss 6-13 -274.02 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
205 Locomotion Loss 9-15 1.7 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)