#278 Baywatch (4-15)

avg: 215.25  •  sd: 97.55  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
268 Orbit Win 9-8 423.04 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
235 Mississippi Blues Loss 11-12 360.91 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
47 Huntsville Outlaws** Loss 1-13 873.42 Ignored Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
271 Bold City Loss 9-10 162.31 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
164 BATL Cows** Loss 4-13 256.2 Ignored Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
255 Mixchief Win 13-4 1000.84 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
252 Big Bend Loss 10-13 83.96 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
99 Mutiny** Loss 3-13 570.48 Ignored Jul 13th Swan Boat 2019
271 Bold City Win 13-4 887.31 Jul 13th Swan Boat 2019
255 Mixchief Win 12-11 525.84 Jul 13th Swan Boat 2019
153 Jackpot Loss 9-13 502.42 Jul 13th Swan Boat 2019
225 Monster Loss 10-15 129.3 Jul 14th Swan Boat 2019
252 Big Bend Loss 9-14 -61.76 Jul 14th Swan Boat 2019
271 Bold City Loss 6-11 -259.38 Jul 14th Swan Boat 2019
16 Weird** Loss 3-13 1196.8 Ignored Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
153 Jackpot** Loss 4-13 320.99 Ignored Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
207 FIRE ULTIMATE CLUB MIAMI Loss 7-13 106.44 Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
255 Mixchief Loss 5-13 -199.16 Sep 7th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
271 Bold City Loss 9-12 -58.05 Sep 8th Florida Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)