#121 Bulleit Train (11-10)

avg: 1085.56  •  sd: 55.84  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
108 Argo Loss 8-9 1016.92 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
101 Robot Loss 7-11 701.04 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
158 Sweet Action Win 8-4 1468.15 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
176 Spoiler Alert Win 13-8 1277.59 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
102 Family Style Loss 8-9 1042.56 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
179 Long Beach Legacy Loss 9-10 648.82 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
158 Sweet Action Win 11-7 1370.23 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
161 Breakers Mark Win 15-3 1492.72 Aug 3rd Kleinman Eruption 2019
95 Platypi Win 12-10 1416.52 Aug 3rd Kleinman Eruption 2019
64 The Administrators Loss 8-13 848.79 Aug 3rd Kleinman Eruption 2019
215 Megalodon Win 15-6 1229.01 Aug 3rd Kleinman Eruption 2019
82 Pegasus Loss 8-11 879.99 Aug 4th Kleinman Eruption 2019
36 Garage Sale Loss 8-15 998.57 Aug 4th Kleinman Eruption 2019
82 Pegasus Win 10-9 1370.6 Sep 7th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
43 Birdfruit Loss 4-11 917.79 Sep 7th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
188 Seven Hills Win 11-6 1270.21 Sep 7th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
114 Surge Loss 7-11 642.01 Sep 7th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
245 Mola Mola Win 11-5 1053.96 Sep 7th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
250 Friendzone** Win 15-6 1016.85 Ignored Sep 8th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
152 Fable Win 11-9 1171.22 Sep 8th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
114 Surge Loss 12-13 983.9 Sep 8th Washington Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)