#111 panIC (19-13)

avg: 1066.49  •  sd: 65.79  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
229 Pushovers-C Win 12-7 838.78 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
160 Mad Udderburn Win 10-7 1191.84 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
135 Blitzkrieg Loss 9-11 708.53 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
25 The Chad Larson Experience Loss 5-13 1000.75 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
70 Chalice Loss 7-12 756.12 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
135 Blitzkrieg Win 9-7 1237.07 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
166 Spirit Fowl Win 11-4 1387.68 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
145 Pandamonium Loss 11-12 760.38 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
230 EDM** Win 13-4 904.08 Ignored Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
172 Los Heros Win 13-10 1072.92 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
112 Mojo Jojo Loss 8-11 696.78 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
184 Mousetrap Win 9-8 783.08 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
97 tHUMP Loss 7-13 582.35 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
185 Boomtown Pandas Win 13-6 1250.51 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
72 Bird Loss 11-12 1141.31 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
249 LudICRous** Win 13-1 379.2 Ignored Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
186 Jabba Win 13-6 1250.2 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
160 Mad Udderburn Win 15-6 1402.17 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
145 Pandamonium Win 15-12 1185.87 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
137 ELevate Win 15-10 1395.47 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
34 Woodwork Loss 4-13 915.38 Sep 15th West Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
215 Free Ride Win 13-4 1092.01 Sep 15th West Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
159 Hellbenders Win 13-11 1039.58 Sep 15th West Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
70 Chalice Loss 11-12 1151.63 Sep 15th West Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
130 Impact Win 13-11 1197.67 Sep 16th West Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
93 Thoroughbred Win 11-8 1522.15 Sep 16th West Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
34 Woodwork Loss 8-13 1019.22 Sep 22nd North Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
16 NOISE** Loss 4-13 1143.18 Ignored Sep 22nd North Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
45 Northern Comfort Loss 6-10 939.7 Sep 22nd North Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
93 Thoroughbred Win 10-9 1281.54 Sep 22nd North Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
160 Mad Udderburn Win 10-8 1064.84 Sep 23rd North Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
72 Bird Loss 8-13 770.15 Sep 23rd North Central Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)