#126 Risky Business (14-14)

avg: 1010.25  •  sd: 64.97  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
81 Bexar Win 12-10 1432.7 Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
53 Boomtown Loss 4-15 745.13 Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
262 Balloon** Win 15-4 878.14 Ignored Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
224 Mud Turtles Win 15-4 1127.86 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
230 Discney Win 15-6 1060.77 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
45 Waterloo Loss 6-15 847.57 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
113 blOKC party Loss 6-15 466.68 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
214 Chili Poppers Win 15-6 1180.52 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
129 Moontower Loss 10-15 534.58 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
40 Chalice Loss 4-13 884.8 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
152 Melt Win 13-1 1461.32 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
121 Stripes Win 13-10 1371.02 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
63 Toast Loss 6-13 677.36 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
52 Woodwork Loss 8-10 1134.56 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
121 Stripes Win 11-5 1642.87 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
111 PanIC Loss 6-10 571.81 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
281 Alpha** Win 13-5 740.49 Ignored Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
159 Tex Mix Win 10-7 1225.89 Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
129 Moontower Win 11-9 1237.4 Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
229 Tlacuaches Win 13-5 1066.65 Sep 7th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 Bexar Loss 6-9 776.01 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
45 Waterloo Loss 9-11 1198.36 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
129 Moontower Win 10-7 1377.85 Sep 8th Texas Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
46 Mesteño Loss 7-13 886.75 Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
148 Sweet Action Loss 10-12 632.93 Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
6 shame.** Loss 5-13 1328.01 Ignored Sep 21st South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
113 blOKC party Loss 6-9 648.12 Sep 22nd South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
135 Springs Mixed Ulty Team Win 11-10 1078.79 Sep 22nd South Central Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)