#186 Crucible (8-17)

avg: 615.92  •  sd: 50.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
207 Buffalo Brain Freeze Win 11-4 1076.39 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
149 FLI Loss 10-11 704.82 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
68 Heat Wave** Loss 3-13 658.05 Ignored Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
148 Heavy Flow Loss 9-12 489.79 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
154 ColorBomb Loss 7-8 693.69 Jun 25th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
58 Garbage Plates** Loss 2-12 717.32 Ignored Jun 25th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
97 Scarecrow Loss 5-13 474.23 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
197 Swampbenders Loss 6-9 139.62 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
65 Grand Army** Loss 2-13 674.14 Ignored Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
118 Lampshade Loss 7-13 448.62 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
197 Swampbenders Loss 10-12 320.07 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
216 Brooklyn Hive Win 11-7 884.89 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
50 Steamboat** Loss 3-13 790.5 Ignored Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
136 Toast! Loss 5-9 350.28 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
193 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Win 9-6 999.78 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
212 ELevate Win 10-6 938.94 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
231 POW! Win 11-7 747.8 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
191 2Fly2Furious Win 8-7 718.77 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
89 Three Rivers Ultimate Club Loss 6-15 520.31 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
154 ColorBomb Loss 5-13 218.69 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Founders Sectional Championship
49 Jughandle** Loss 2-13 806.77 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Founders Sectional Championship
226 The Incidentals Win 13-9 745.87 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Founders Sectional Championship
26 Loco** Loss 4-13 1096.53 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Founders Sectional Championship
178 Philly Twist Loss 6-7 547.06 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Founders Sectional Championship
213 Milk Win 10-7 830.9 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Founders Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)