#117 Spectre (10-10)

avg: 1010.45  •  sd: 69.31  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
212 ELevate Win 13-4 1042.78 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
155 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Win 13-9 1235.71 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
144 Point of No Return Win 13-12 971.9 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
121 Jabba Win 13-8 1481.03 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
111 Bird Loss 10-11 897.53 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
50 Steamboat Loss 6-13 790.5 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
64 Minnesota Star Power Loss 9-13 864.79 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
30 Chicago Parlay** Loss 1-13 1063.97 Ignored Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
92 Mad Udderburn Loss 7-10 710.49 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
132 Mousetrap Win 12-5 1498.86 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
56 No Touching! Loss 7-15 724.26 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
64 Minnesota Star Power Loss 6-14 683.35 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
78 Northern Comfort Loss 8-13 692.59 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
212 ELevate Win 11-5 1042.78 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
143 Skyhawks Loss 8-12 410.33 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
129 Bandwagon Win 13-11 1148.05 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
110 Nothing's Great Again Loss 10-12 784.87 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
173 Practice Player Penguins [JV] Win 13-6 1333.97 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
129 Bandwagon Win 12-4 1519.21 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
146 Indiana Pterodactyl Attack Win 13-7 1396.35 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Central Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)