#26 Alloy (16-13)

avg: 1589.35  •  sd: 80.55  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
24 Rally Win 12-11 1736.11 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
30 Jughandle Win 12-8 1998.51 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
1 AMP Win 12-11 2278.89 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
5 Space Heater Loss 8-15 1398.13 Jun 16th Amp Invite 2018
9 Wild Card Loss 7-10 1483.98 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
15 Toro Loss 9-11 1511.43 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
16 NOISE Loss 6-13 1143.18 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
22 XIST Loss 9-13 1199.48 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
31 Metro North Loss 10-12 1318.2 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
36 Steamboat Win 9-8 1630.39 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
33 League of Shadows Loss 11-12 1410.95 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
20 No Touching! Loss 7-13 1123.85 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
19 Bucket Loss 7-13 1147.7 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
38 Columbus Cocktails Win 9-8 1625.3 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
36 Steamboat Loss 11-13 1276.55 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
222 I-79** Win 11-2 984.34 Ignored Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
152 Peep Show Win 11-6 1402.06 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
163 Stoke** Win 10-2 1396.61 Ignored Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
18 Loco Win 9-8 1859.4 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
117 The Process Win 9-7 1311.72 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
149 Crucible Win 13-7 1437.24 Sep 9th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
18 Loco Win 10-6 2230.56 Sep 9th Founders Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
79 8 Bit Heroes Win 13-6 1843.22 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
173 Fake Newport News** Win 13-4 1341.57 Ignored Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
59 Distelfink Win 13-2 1900.71 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
1 AMP Loss 9-15 1638.4 Sep 22nd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
24 Rally Win 15-11 1992.28 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
5 Space Heater Loss 11-13 1734.1 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
30 Jughandle Loss 11-12 1432.35 Sep 23rd Mid Atlantic Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)