#142 Philly Twist (12-13)

avg: 952.29  •  sd: 56.06  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
61 Chaotic Good Loss 2-15 751.87 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
115 Rat City Loss 9-15 590.19 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
112 Stoke Loss 5-15 513.57 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
46 Sparkle Ponies Loss 7-15 890.21 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
88 The Bandits Loss 8-13 706.72 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
177 Unlimited Swipes Win 13-6 1380.86 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
247 Pandatime Win 13-3 1047.97 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
91 Garbage Plates Loss 8-13 699.96 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
177 Unlimited Swipes Loss 10-13 452.72 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
237 Stormborn Win 13-4 1081.64 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
173 Alt Stacks Win 15-9 1307.65 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
178 Mashed Win 15-8 1344.05 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
270 Baltimore BENCH** Win 13-2 892.64 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
86 Eat Lightning Loss 7-13 664.31 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
266 I-79** Win 13-5 915.46 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
115 Rat City Win 10-9 1230.67 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
85 HVAC Loss 5-9 702.78 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
112 Stoke Loss 9-10 988.57 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
143 Superstition Win 10-8 1212.95 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
15 Loco Loss 7-13 1244.81 Sep 7th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
126 Farm Show Loss 8-13 551.35 Sep 7th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
200 Left Turn Lane Win 13-7 1252.46 Sep 7th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
200 Left Turn Lane Win 13-7 1252.46 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
- Trenton Takers Win 15-13 880.78 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
117 PS Loss 12-14 878.36 Sep 8th Founders Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)