#109 Superstition (9-16)

avg: 1072.46  •  sd: 59.2  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
40 Five One Two Loss 9-13 1066.73 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
44 Bozos Loss 6-9 1042.1 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
69 Mental Toss Flycoons Loss 7-11 812.59 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
8 Love Tractor Loss 6-13 1279.16 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
51 Cutthroat Loss 2-15 757.69 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
89 Sweet Action Loss 9-15 653.55 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
161 AC Bandits Win 13-8 1296.45 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
110 California Burrito Loss 11-12 942.08 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
- Happy Cows** Win 13-4 931.79 Ignored Jul 21st Revolution 2018
61 Donuts Win 11-10 1417.12 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
72 Bird Loss 9-11 1017.1 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
182 Sebastopol Orchard Win 13-6 1272.27 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
110 California Burrito Win 9-5 1596.14 Aug 4th Coconino Classic 2018
62 Long Beach Legacy Loss 8-9 1166.8 Aug 4th Coconino Classic 2018
162 Fear and Loathing Win 11-3 1397.89 Aug 4th Coconino Classic 2018
200 Rogue Win 11-2 1172.74 Aug 4th Coconino Classic 2018
47 ROBOS Loss 9-10 1262.34 Aug 5th Coconino Classic 2018
48 Rubix Loss 4-13 778.83 Aug 5th Coconino Classic 2018
52 Instant Karma Loss 7-11 878.16 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
162 Fear and Loathing Loss 11-12 672.89 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
48 Rubix Loss 5-13 778.83 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
110 California Burrito Win 10-8 1329.75 Sep 9th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
170 Spoiler Alert Win 13-7 1316.06 Sep 9th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
47 ROBOS Loss 10-12 1149.22 Sep 9th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
48 Rubix Loss 6-13 778.83 Sep 9th So Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)