#17 Polar Bears (27-12)

avg: 1739.68  •  sd: 75.4  •  top 16/20: 86%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
55 American Barbecue Win 15-5 1924.28 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
37 BW Ultimate Win 11-10 1625.56 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
7 Blackbird Loss 8-13 1395.52 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
29 7 Figures Loss 10-11 1435.38 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
35 Classy Win 10-9 1638.71 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
23 Lights Out Win 10-8 1877.12 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
32 UNION Win 12-8 1981.96 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
19 Bucket Win 13-6 2305.23 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
39 Minnesota Star Power Win 13-10 1827.67 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
81 Pegasus Win 13-6 1837.29 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
14 Lochsa Win 13-7 2321.25 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
13 Birdfruit Win 13-11 2008.13 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
24 Rally Win 13-7 2168.64 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
15 Toro Loss 10-12 1522.51 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
38 Columbus Cocktails Win 13-7 2057.83 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
12 Mischief Win 13-5 2384.35 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
20 No Touching! Win 14-13 1806.38 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
8 Love Tractor Loss 7-13 1321.63 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
131 Absolute Zero** Win 13-1 1566.06 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
161 AC Bandits** Win 13-3 1400.29 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
55 American Barbecue Win 13-6 1924.28 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
67 Firefly Win 13-10 1610.75 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
35 Classy Win 13-11 1742.55 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
7 Blackbird Loss 11-12 1766.68 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
12 Mischief Loss 7-13 1226.82 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
55 American Barbecue Win 13-7 1881.82 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
61 Donuts Win 13-7 1849.66 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
47 ROBOS Win 13-11 1616.18 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
7 Blackbird Win 13-12 2016.68 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
35 Classy Win 13-6 2113.71 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
85 Platypi Win 13-8 1686.83 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
12 Mischief Loss 10-13 1456.21 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
22 XIST Win 14-13 1743.05 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
3 Drag'n Thrust Loss 11-15 1637.06 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
10 shame. Win 15-11 2225.89 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
2 Seattle Mixtape Loss 9-15 1506.15 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
30 Jughandle Loss 12-14 1336.39 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
11 Slow White Loss 12-15 1526.81 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
38 Columbus Cocktails Loss 9-15 984.81 Oct 20th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)