#72 Ant Madness (19-11)

avg: 1276.3  •  sd: 51.57  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
25 Alloy Loss 5-13 1109.76 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
27 Storm Loss 5-13 1053.05 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
55 Malice in Wonderland Loss 11-12 1284.77 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
115 Rat City Loss 9-13 687.11 Jun 22nd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
165 APEX Win 13-5 1445.11 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
191 LORD Win 12-6 1293.21 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
103 Tyrannis Loss 7-13 602.5 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
111 NC Galaxy Win 7-5 1452.99 Jun 23rd Summer Glazed Daze 2019
177 Unlimited Swipes Win 14-8 1316.89 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
126 Farm Show Win 13-11 1276.35 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
46 Sparkle Ponies Loss 9-14 1016.34 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
94 Soft Boiled Win 10-9 1306.95 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
61 Chaotic Good Win 11-10 1476.87 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
35 League of Shadows Loss 9-15 1047.91 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
46 Sparkle Ponies Loss 6-10 994.05 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
195 Heavy Flow Win 13-4 1301.66 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
115 Rat City Win 12-7 1626.18 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
139 Tequila Mockingbird Win 13-5 1585.39 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
85 HVAC Loss 10-12 993.72 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
223 District Cocktails Win 13-8 1084.08 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
139 Tequila Mockingbird Win 12-9 1330.76 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
90 Fleet Win 15-10 1650.75 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
57 8 Bit Heroes Loss 6-13 791.87 Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
191 LORD Win 13-3 1313.9 Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
216 Espionage** Win 13-2 1218.95 Ignored Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
273 WhirlyNegs** Win 13-3 853.79 Ignored Sep 7th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
131 Legion Win 15-11 1410.81 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
85 HVAC Win 13-9 1650.41 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
46 Sparkle Ponies Loss 11-12 1365.21 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
90 Fleet Win 11-7 1664.04 Sep 8th Capital Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)