#214 Face Off (7-17)

avg: 493.06  •  sd: 73.96  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 Heartless Loss 7-13 756.13 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
124 Albany Airbenders Loss 4-12 412.1 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
164 Enough Monkeys Win 12-9 1141.22 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
150 Scarecrow Loss 6-11 320.71 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
154 Default Loss 9-15 331.65 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
218 Equinox Win 15-8 1010.58 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
108 Alt Stacks Loss 8-12 636.34 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
181 RIMIX Loss 9-10 547.36 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
231 BLT Stacks Win 13-4 898.67 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
107 Sunken Circus Loss 3-13 477.52 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
- Rising Tide Win 12-10 742.81 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
195 Rainbow Loss 6-10 99.02 Jul 22nd Vacationland 2018
189 DTX Loss 8-13 144.88 Jul 22nd Vacationland 2018
237 Turnstyle Win 10-6 701.44 Aug 4th White Mountain Mixed 2018
181 RIMIX Loss 10-15 218.76 Aug 4th White Mountain Mixed 2018
189 DTX Loss 8-14 105 Aug 4th White Mountain Mixed 2018
195 Rainbow Loss 9-15 79.7 Aug 5th White Mountain Mixed 2018
209 DTH Win 15-7 1131.17 Aug 5th White Mountain Mixed 2018
180 HAOS Loss 10-15 226.34 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
73 Chaotic Good** Loss 2-15 665.65 Ignored Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
209 DTH Loss 15-16 406.17 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
107 Sunken Circus Loss 9-15 562.04 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
241 Dead Reckoning Win 15-11 517.5 Sep 9th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
181 RIMIX Loss 10-15 218.76 Sep 9th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)