#198 Second Wind (11-13)

avg: 581.25  •  sd: 64.39  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Win 11-7 1061.35 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
88 Toast Loss 1-11 576.79 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
125 Hybrid Loss 5-11 407.61 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
186 Jabba Win 11-10 775.2 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
137 ELevate Loss 4-11 341.87 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
149 Crucible Loss 4-15 279.71 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
208 Bonfire Loss 12-13 409.69 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
172 Los Heros Loss 6-15 144.78 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
129 Moonshine Loss 6-11 424.87 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
- Pocket City Approach Win 11-7 732.83 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
223 Petey's Scallywags Win 11-6 907.39 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
238 Strictly Bidness Win 11-8 553.02 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
235 Skyhawks Win 11-4 844.51 Jul 21st Bourbon Bash 2018
222 I-79 Win 8-6 684.83 Jul 22nd Bourbon Bash 2018
205 Fifth Element Loss 5-9 14.93 Jul 22nd Bourbon Bash 2018
235 Skyhawks Win 10-9 369.51 Jul 22nd Bourbon Bash 2018
129 Moonshine Loss 3-13 371.57 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
196 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon Win 13-6 1194.46 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
88 Toast Loss 5-13 576.79 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
205 Fifth Element Win 13-6 1143.99 Sep 15th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
208 Bonfire Win 13-5 1134.69 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
171 North Coast Loss 5-11 150.72 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
223 Petey's Scallywags Loss 11-13 131.85 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
140 Rocket LawnChair Loss 7-13 338.13 Sep 16th East Plains Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)