#260 Party Cats-D (4-18)

avg: 301.15  •  sd: 76.87  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
237 Feral Cows Loss 6-12 -148.08 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
66 Firefly** Loss 0-13 657.29 Ignored Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
64 Donuts Loss 5-11 672.77 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
177 Spoiler Alert Loss 3-12 130.49 Jun 8th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
163 VU Loss 4-10 214.21 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
269 Sebastopol Orchard Win 12-10 482 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2019
195 Birds of Paradise Loss 7-10 259.1 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
184 DR Loss 4-13 97.45 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
218 Megalodon Loss 6-11 12.92 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
237 Feral Cows Win 9-8 556.23 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
163 VU Win 11-5 1414.21 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
177 Spoiler Alert Loss 7-9 451.15 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
237 Feral Cows Loss 7-13 -126.3 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
184 DR Loss 6-13 97.45 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
163 VU Loss 5-13 214.21 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
145 The Los Gatos Gatos-Senior Loss 7-9 608.48 Aug 17th Sanctionals 2019
42 Classy** Loss 4-13 862.69 Ignored Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
104 Argo** Loss 3-13 501.84 Ignored Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
64 Donuts** Loss 4-13 672.77 Ignored Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
145 The Los Gatos Gatos-Senior Loss 4-13 287.82 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
299 Delta Breeze Win 13-5 600 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
237 Feral Cows Loss 7-9 151.9 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)